Codebreaker Profits February 2021 Video Call

Hello and welcome, Codebreaker subscribers. Good afternoon. Today we have come to our February video call. We've got a lot to go over today. We've got some old news, some new news and really, I think the theme this week, and really this month is there's a lot of action happening that's not really in the news. If you look at the news this week, it's overall pretty boring, at least on Wall Street. If we dig deeper, we see some interesting things. That's my goal with today's call. I've got some slides we can go over. I've got some different charts and things I want to look at, and I really want to focus on kind of underlying and drivers of the stock market right now and what's really moving things and some of the trends I'm seeing and how we can take advantage of that. As I'll show in these charts, the Codebreaker system, particularly our KI system is set up very well to take advantage of some of the volatility in the ups and downs we're seeing in the market.

A lot of folks have wondered, when does the Codebreaker system really shine? This is it. We're kind of getting out of that momentum stage, which is more Alpha Money Flow and we're getting into the volatility stage of things. This is the time for the Codebreaker system. I'm not saying that it hasn't done well before. It's done fantastic but now we're getting into the real peak of where this system shines. Stay tuned. I'm going to share my screen with you. We'll go through the charts. Let me flip things over here, share my screen, I'll be right back with you. All right, here we go. Hopefully I didn't break anything and you can now share my screen. Once again, welcome to the February video update and like I said, we've got some old news, some new news and some cool and interesting charts to go over.

Last time we talked, I think it was right around mid January. We were looking at it interest rates. We were looking at stimulus. We were looking at the stock market at record highs and of course, you know, I'm a volume guy. We were talking about volume, volume, volume. There's a lot to look at on the volume side of things. And guess what? This time it's much the same story. Interest rates are even a bigger topic right now. They're slowly making their way into the mainstream money press. If you dig deeper, talk to some economists and some market professionals inside the market interest rates are the big driving theme right now, for sure. Stimulus is there. It's kind of baked in into things right now. We know there's something cooking.

We know checks are going to be written here sometime soon. That's just a continuation of a story that really started what last... Well last March, but really got heated in last April, I believe. Then volume. Volume again is still a big story. We're seeing that more in the realm of cryptos and some of the higher flying stocks. GameStop was up again, triple digits yesterday. We're starting to see those volume moves come back in, despite Congress kind of clacking about it and seeing what they can do. They can't really do much for it. There's some big profit opportunity there really, for anybody that can track that volume. Again, that's alpha money flow that we're tracking the money flow over in that service. Not going to get too much into volume today with within Codebreaker, but I do want to show you some, charts and things related to the KI system that tie in with that.

First, I got to share a little bit of an oops that happened yesterday. This made it onto a few media outlets, but the Federal Reserve's money transfer systems, just about all of them were down for at least two hours yesterday. It's an interesting thing. You had Janet Yellen, I think it was earlier this week. It was on Capitol Hill, excuse me, talking about how a digital currency, a sovereign digital currency is starting to make more and more sense for the United States. That's a big turn of events for us during the Trump administration was something that the fed was just looking at. Now you have Yellen in charge of the Treasury saying it sounds like a good idea. The feds obviously studying it. I think they're further ahead than they tell us. The federal reserve is not going to slowly tip something out.

I think it's going to come quick when it comes. We're the reserve currency, and we don't want to mess around and, and give markets too much maneuvering time. It's like when the Nixon shock when we closed the gold window, it happened overnight. It was a big surprise with, everybody learned about it by watching TV. It could be a very similar thing with any sort of digital currencies that come out. We know China is well on its way. We know some Northern European countries are well on their way to sovereign digital currencies. Bahamas, Bermuda already are using it. So it's coming. When the system goes down, and the reason we talk about it is the blockchain system really doesn't go down. The future of money is certainly changing.

The more problems we run into these antiquated systems like the ACH system is so old. I wouldn't be surprised if it runs on a floppy disc that somebody has to put into a, an old Tandy 1000 or something every morning. We need to upgrade it. The Federal Reserve absolutely knows it needs to. It's just so big how do you do it? Fortunately the free market is answering that question for us and it's providing crypto. We'll see where it goes. I'm excited about it. You guys know that I like the crypto space right now, but I showed this chart. This is a Bitcoin chart over the last six months. It's just an incredible chart, but it shows how the KI channels fit within crypto. So you can see here over on the very right side of the chart, you think all this volatility, the ups and downs that we've seen with crypto, it's really not out of the norm.

We're still trading just like I want to see with good stocks between this mid channel line and this upper barrier. We get up above it. We climb then we bounce down. This is where we bounced down earlier this week, and now we're climbing back up. So, you know, 57,000 is not out of the realm. It's when we break through this guy, the mid channel line and stay below it is when we run into issues. Here we showed the strength, bounced, went lower, bounced higher, tested it out and stayed above it. Anytime we breach this line, that's when we're paying attention. As long as we're above it all these day to day, gyrations are mostly noise. That's why you see Square, just put another $130 million into it.

Other groups this week are buying into it. There's just still a tremendous amount of volume going into to crypto. Again, this isn't a crypto service, but I did want to show you how it ties into the KI system. I have a question later, we have Q and A at the end, I have a question sort of related to this we'll get to. All right so getting more specifically and diving down into our service here, we have Triton International. Congratulations to anybody that took advantage of this. This is part of the Rollover Trades. Recommended two last Thursday, last Thursday morning and we just sold Triton yesterday for gains I think about 235% was our official win in our portfolio so congratulations on that. And you can see just how that trade worked.

Triton bounced off the lower KI channel here and did exactly what we thought it would. It went up here, tested that mid-level line, got above it, and then it was off to the races. This is what I called Anna on and was watching, watching option volume for our rollover system. And then, boom. This is also a fundamental play too. I've written and researched a good bit about the commodity trade right now, and the more succinctly to Triton the shortage of shipping containers. Triton is a big leaser of shipping containers and its businesses flat out booming. There's just not enough of containers right now. It's ordered more. So it's adding on to its business and the fundamentals are absolutely there. Again, this is what initially caught my attention.

Then as our Rollover system dictates, we go to the option market and look for outsized option positions that we're going to see that money rolling over into new plays. That's exactly what we saw at the end of the last option, monthly option period. We saw a bunch of volume go in and just look from right about here across. We took advantage of that. The system worked just as it was supposed to. Here's a little more inside baseball on what I'm looking for. Should probably go to the next slide here first so let me show you that. What you're looking at here are the options that expire March 19th. These are what we got in, the $55 but look here. You can see, this is July so a little further out with the date. We have some good open interest, not a ton of volume happening here on a daily basis. Roughly 300 contracts for these in the money calls.

Then if we go back, we can see, wow, here 2,000 open interest of 2,000 contracts, big volume for the day. We see 1,100, almost 1,200 for the $60 calls. So that was a clue to me that there's big opportunity here. If we could go back to the March data, which I don't have, or excuse me, the February data, which I don't have, you'd see very similar numbers. That was a big clue that the money's going to roll over, push the stock up, push the options up. That's exactly what we got. It turned into an over 200% gain. Very, very nice. Congratulations on that. All right. So I guess climbing back up to more than that 30,000, 40,000 foot view, here's what the 10-year Treasury looks like on our KI scale. This is I hate to say alarming, but this is more red lights than you'd want to see with Treasuries.

To me, Treasuries are way oversold. Remember when Treasury prices go down, that's when interest rates go up. I try not to confuse things and stick to either prices or interest rates here but when we're looking here at the interest rate today it's right about 1.37, a little bit higher, but we're well above that upper KI channel. So that tells me we're probably going to see a dip here. Jay Powell has been trying its hardest this week to talk rates down, but lots of folks are expecting inflation. Lots of folks are expecting reflation in the market. That's what's driving these up. If you follow these things, Jay Powell already has the benchmark, the overnight rate as low as it can go without going negative. Really what they're using to control rates right now, they're not going to take them lower without going negative, which is something that had to do in a bigger meeting and would definitely ruffle more feathers.

They're trying everything they can right now to buy more corporate bonds, buy more mortgage backed securities and keep that demand high for the bonds. Keep the prices high, which pulls the rates down. So far they're not having a ton of luck. They're going to have to either pour more money in which means print more money or let rates rise. I think they're fine letting rates rise to 1-1/2% on the 10 year. After that, I think they're going to get much more serious and stop the jawboning and fire up the printing press some more. Headlines are catching up to this. We're we're seeing it. This top one here February easily the worst month for rates in a long time. That's from the mortgage industry. If you follow mortgage rates, the industry mortgage rates are climbing just slightly.

They're still not high. They're not even where we were a year or two ago, but they're climbing. That slows down the real estate market, which is probably a good thing right now. The market is super duper hot. We'll see where that goes. The next headline here's the real reason bulls should fear higher interest rates and we absolutely should. If we're bullish on the stock market, you guys know I've said interest rates are the hormone of the economy. I've called for Dow 100,000. That all depends on interest rates staying far lower than they should be naturally. The market's trying to raise them up. I think if we wouldn't have had the free market rule, they have to be higher, but that's not going to happen. As I said, Jay Powell is going to continue pushing things down and that's what's going to raise stock markets.

But if that doesn't happen, if I'm wrong, if a lot of investors are wrong, then the bull market is in big trouble. Again, the reason I think that's not going to happen is because Jay Powell does not want the bull market to be in trouble because then we're all in trouble. I mentioned, Powell is in front of Congress this week. He testified Tuesday, I think, to the Senate and then Wednesday to the House. But he says the economy is a long way in quotes from Fed's goal. The central bank has no plans to raise rates or reduce bond purchases. Again, he's trying to jawbone rates down. I think he's got to increase bond purchases if he wants to pull rates lower, but let me show you where in the grand scheme of thing rates are. This is a chart that I showed you last month.

You can see the date up here, but really we're just over in here. We're still not where we were when we entered the year last year. You can see the big slide, but that's why I say this 1.5... I don't think we should be back to where we were. The economy is not back to where it was in late 2019, but we're getting there. Unemployment is still high but we're seeing earnings reports hitting records. It's a very mixed economy. I think the fed is okay with that 1.5% rate, but not any higher. I wouldn't be surprised to be climbing back up to here. I think we all want to kind of erase 2020 and overcome that, and then steady out from here. If we start to climb above that, and then we're going to see some strong monetary action from the fed. Don't forget, the fed has not stopped printing money.

This is very important. This is a chart that I've shown a lot and I'll continue to show. Here's when we saw it here, let's go back here. Interest rates dipped here. That's because money printing started here and now we're still trying to print the money. It almost looks like it's in fits and starts trying to print money, buy more bonds, keep rates low. I think we're going to start to see this have to spike up again. Again, not good news. None of this is really good news for a free economy that is healthy and thriving, but it's good news for the folks that take advantage of it. I saw a headline the other day that buying stocks are the only way to be able to buy food and in the near future. That's really scary, but it's not too far off from the truth. If we want to keep up with inflation, we've got to be in stocks and other assets like crypto, for sure. And this chart is exactly the reason why.

All right, so just a quick look at where the market is on our KI scales. You can see the upper and lower bounds here. This to me is a beautiful chart. Looks just like it should. You get great buying opportunities when it hits this midline. Again here, when we dip below it, we go up and test it and to bounce higher. Just some very good things here. I think the S and P is in fine shape. People get euphoric of the upper KI and then it comes right back down and then it bounces... The bear's coming back, the bear talk comes back then it bounces up. We're in good shape. There's a lot of headline hyperbole right now, but stick to a chart like this. I mean, even back here, you see how powerful this chart is, and this is what I want to see, this run right in here. It's just good times. This was a tremendous time for our portfolio, just buying when we get to these balances and taking profits back up at the top Just a tremendous system to be a part of right now. So very, very good.

All right, here we see it in Boise Cascade. This is a stock we got in two weeks ago I believe. Had earnings earlier this week and they weren't terrible or anything, they weren't great. It wasn't a beat. It was just a small, not loss, but just a small miss on estimates. The stock has already climbed back. You can see, again the system's working here. The marker just about hit it, climb right back up to that midline marker. Now we're going to watch it bounce back up. If we get back down to that marker, we're going to have to pay attention. That's what our stop-losses are for. I don't see that happening. I think we'll get right back up to this upper line and see some good profits from this one. If you didn't buy on my initial trade and you happened to buy during the dip earlier this week on Tuesday I believe, great job. That's going to be a strong play, but Boise is fundamentally a good play.

The housing market, like I said, is red hot. The timber industry is really unique right now. Boise's in a very good spot for that. Timber prices remain at near lows, not record lows, but near them. There's just a glut of supply in the timber industry right now. Folks were expecting it to do well. It should do well in an inflationary period, but it's not. It's bucking the textbooks like almost everything else right now, it's bucking the textbooks. Prices are staying low because there's such a supply. The processors and the companies making the end products are in control. They're naming their price. They're controlling the market. And Boise Cascade is a big part of that. It's in very good shape. Its input costs are low, almost as low as they've ever been, but the price it's selling its products for are at highs.

That doesn't look like it's going to go away anytime soon for a while. Everybody keeps saying these higher prices are transitory. We're not seeing that. The longer they stick around, the higher Boise Cascade, will go. Very good news there. Then, I'm not going to try to pronounce the name, Kulicke and Soffa. All right there, I did it. This has been a fantastic trade for us. We got in, let's see, right about here. So on the 25th, right when we hit that midline marker again, it's the perfect way for our system to take advantage of these guard rails for stocks. We got in and boom it bounced up. went higher and we're sitting on option gains on our April $40 calls for about 265% right now. It's a software, excuse me a semiconductor play.

There's again, a shortage in the industry. It's all across the industry. It started in the cars, but you know, Sony. A position one of our portfolios is saying that they're not going to have enough chips to make PlayStations this year. Again, the car industry has had to stop some production because micro semiconductor shortages. A great play to be in right now. We're just going to keep holding this and watching our stops and seeing how far these gains will go. This was another one. Just put it in here to not to brag, but always take a humble brag, but to show again how buying when we hit this mid channel marker and watching it pop up, how well that has worked for us. We can see it just going the whole way through here. Anytime we buy on that. The overall trend, you would have been fine buying anywhere here, but why not wait and buy on those dips and use that market force, that powerful market force that's going to slingshot back up. Very, very nice.

All right, looks like we had that one in there twice. Just a couple of questions here. This is one I get almost every time we put out our Rollover Trades, which come out the third Thursday of the month typically. What's the difference between a monthly Rollover Trade and our standard weekly trade? All right, so what I've been talking about almost exclusively so far has been what we call our standard trades using the KI system, We the KI the lower and upper channels and that midline to pick our stocks. That's the bread and butter of the Codebreaker system. Like I said, I'm a volume guy as well. For the last, I don't know, almost 20 years, 15, 20 years, I've been studying volume, tracking volume and my research team and I, we're looking at the options market, the volume anomalies there and we came across a pretty cool anomaly that we can take advantage of.

It fits very well within the Codebreaker system. That is the rollover system. That's based on the fact that as we get to options expiration, the third Friday of every month, we see big money of Wall Street, a wave of cash coming in, taking the money from one options play and rolling it over to the next month. From the front month, which is expiring, to the next month and we're just following that cash and we're getting ahead of it. By using our system, by using volume, we can see where that biggest slug of money is going to go and really take advantage of it. That's the difference. Those plays usually do two or three a month.

They're outside of the system. Of course I track them and we have stops on them and I give buy and sell advice there, but they're different. They're almost a bonus to our overall Codebreaker system, the KI system. Hopefully that makes sense. It's basically two in one. Good deal. All right, then the next question here, do either of these systems work with crypto? So, yes. Yes and no. As I showed you at the beginning, Bitcoin, the big boy of it all is following the system but if I look at some of the alt coins, the smaller coins. It's volume, volume, volume based with them so that's where my money flows system comes in. We've got, don't quote me on it, but five or six, half a dozen crypto's in there right now. And we're just having a tremendous time.

So if you're into crypto, is that's, that's where it's at. I'm not going to recommend cryptos in the Codebreaker system because really the only one that I would follow or I would trust to follow the system and follow the channels is the big boy, the trillion dollar behemoth out there, Bitcoin. That's more of a long-term hold and not some sort of in and out trade. Whereas if we use trading volume, we can get in and out and track the big money as it's coming in and going out. And that's just been again, follow the headlines. Tremendous opportunity right now in that market. That's it. I appreciate everybody tuning in here. We're just about 20 minutes into it, which is the sweet spot where I want to keep it. If you have more questions, comments, whatever, email me at mailbag@manwardpress.com.

Always let me know how your portfolio is doing. I love it when folks send in their trade results win or lose, it helps me fine tune the system and make sure that what we're recording in our official portfolio matches your portfolio. Keep things coming, keep the emails coming. I read everything that comes in there. I can't necessarily respond to everything. Just some of the rules that are out there with the SEC, but I absolutely read it and our team replies where possible as well. Again, thank you, thank you, thank you for tuning in and giving us your support and your trust with your hard earned dollars. I think we're doing really well this year. Really excited for what's ahead. So again, until we talk again next month, keep an eye on your inbox. I'll send you alerts and we'll go from there. So thanks.