GVI Investor February 2022 Video Call

Hi, everyone. I hope you are as excited as I am for me to give you my monthly market update. Yes, I know you're that excited. Now, what I want to do in this is take you through all the best, most useful, insightful comments, data, everything that crosses my desk as a hedge fund manager. These are the best of the best that I've filtered. So I've probably spent hundreds of hours each month going through, reading absolutely everything and anything. And then my team will send me stuff. This is the best of the best that I think's worth looking at.

I just want to start off with this. To give some context, I know we've had some falls. And what you can see here is you do indeed see the S&P and how it's fallen. Well, actually put it into context, this isn't infrequent. It happens. It's not nice, of course, I'd like the market only ever to go up. But I wanted to give some context to this and really to say, "Look, let's just remain calm." I know many of us got something of a slap from the markets, but we want to say calm, we want to have some perspective.

Yes, it's been the worst start ever. For instance, for the NASDAQ, that's absolutely the case. You might want to pause this video as I go through various things. This is from Bloomberg Data ... and I can tell you when I was presenting my show on Bloomberg many years ago, what we would have during the dot-com bubble, for instance, we'd have days when the market wasn't performing well. I'll let you into a secret before we were on air. The producer or the director would whisper in our ear, "Listen, guys, remember a lot of people have lost money today. So let's not just joke around and just sort of have too much fun." Because we've got to be mindful of people's pensions. And that was a sense of responsibility that I've always taken with me, whatever I do. So I don't just want to trivialize the market moves either.

Again, putting into some kind of context, that's what a 50% drop would look like. It's actually, in some regards, it's big because 50% is big. And that's the S&P that I'm showing you there. And in other regards, it's not, we've had 39% drops before and recouped. And nobody wants them and I'm not saying it's going to happen. But I wanted to give it some context. Okay. And I did some more deeper analysis for you on this. And this is what I want to show you here. The more deeper analysis. So this is the S&P 500 and I've drawn four trend lines, A, B, C and D. And what I've said is option A is pretty much everything continues as it's going now. Pretty unlikely, I've probably even put it at less than a 15% probability.

Option B keeps to the longer term trend. Probability of this, 60%. In other words, we get a bit of a pullback, people take some profits. But we're continuing in an upward motion. We're not going to go down for prolonged periods of time. Option C, again, less likely, get a more deeper pullback. And as I said, I think it's less likely, I've put some support levels there. And option D, which is the one, some of the most miserable people in asset management they're talking about. And thankfully there's very few of those, is we go to option D, which is sort of a 50% drop on the S&P 500. And as I said, less likely to happen just because earnings and profits are so, so strong.

You see, we never had that in the .com era. And during the financial crisis, we discovered those earnings and profits and banks weren't real. Okay. And then that had a knock on effect. Here, we've got real profits. Now, unprofitable companies won't do as well. And that's why through the research I do on my GVI research, that I'm looking to make sure that we are very, very diligent. And that we don't fall foul of what the market doesn't like, particularly at the moment, but doesn't generally like anyway.

And here are some of the most bearish people, there's Jeremy Grantham, stock superbubble. There's sell off is starting ... the think about Jeremy Grantham is he says that all the time, he's been saying it for 20 years. And every three or four years, he's right. Put it into context, when we get some of these big moves, I want you to remember, and you see this, on the X axis, one week total return by way of percentages. And then the number of tickers that suffered that kind of a fall. And of course, the number which fall less than 10 ... oh, sorry. Between 10 and 100% in any given week, quite large, because you've got a large universe you're looking at.

But guess what? What does this tell you? It tells you two things. One is, falls are common. Secondly, when things fall, diversification doesn't help. There is no such thing as diversification, everything falls. It moves in lockstep. Of course, some things fall more than others. But the point is, everything's moving in tandem. So the notion that it's okay, I've got a retailer and a software company, they're so separate and different and independent. Everything's more so than ever connected to the economy. What does that mean? That means you can't diversify away your ignorance of the stock market by simply saying, "Oh, I'll just buy a software company and a retailer and I'll be diversified. And therefore, if the market falls, one of them might drop, the other one won't." No, that doesn't work as a theory anymore. It might have done in the sixties, seventies.

What works now is the quality of the company? You've got to make sure when the market does fall like this and the market falls. That the kinds of companies you've got will hopefully not fall as far. They won't be at the left hand ... too much at the left hand end, minus 10%, minus 9%, minus 8%. And if they are, they'll be the type which can rebound just as quickly because they've got solid balance sheets, cash flows, profitability.

Remember, all companies ... and this is what I do in my research. All companies have three sets of accounts, balance sheet, profit and loss, cashflow. And we want to make sure on all of those bases, that the companies are solid. So should they fall because it's inevitable, things like that can happen. That they're the type where I think to myself, "Yeah, I'm not worried." Because it's such a good company.

And that's part of it, I just want to give a bit of an insight into how I go through my analysis on the research, how I and the rest of the team go through it when we're looking at valuation, revenue growth, dividend deals. And why we look at this. And cash flow, cash return on capital invested, consistency of our performance, volatility. Every single thing we can think of when we're going through all those accounts that we look at. And then we don't gamble so much or have to gamble at all on which sector is it in? Will that be a good sector? What's the news item? Will that be a good piece of news? So I want to give you an insight into that thinking.

And I'll tell you what else. And Visa's a good example of this. I just want to give this as an example, it's not a stock idea, it's just a good example to help you understand what's happening in the market. So I've shown a graph there of Visa over the last ... well, over 10 years. And as you can see, it's had a good, steady, upward trend. And what I've shown in the solid blue line you see going through that, is indeed Visa's trend line. And anybody who's had Visa, they've been over the moon. Really happy people. All right. You can see that blue trend line, they've been sort of, yay, yay, yay. Visa's great.

So what is actually going? And this is where it's important to learn about how stock prices move. So I really want to educate you on this. If you look at it, from 2020 till about today, it's flat. And you might say for two years, it's done nothing. Actually what it's done is it's moved from, you see those two dotted lines around that solid blue line? The solid blue line is their average trend line, around which the prices move. Those two dotted lines, the standard deviations, two standard deviations on either side. So if you remember your math, the standard deviation on either side, it's just basically the probabilities, there's assigned probabilities of what something can move. So there's a 66% probability it'll be between a certain range or a 95% probability it'll be between certain ranges.

You can't ever be certain and guarantee it won't go above or below this, nobody can do that. But when you've got any kind of statistical data, you can say, "I'm confident there's a 66% probability it won't go beyond these bands." Or 95 and so on. So I put two standard deviations. And as you can see, most of the time, it does not ... actually you might arguably say up right up until the last couple of months, it's never gone above or below in any meaningful way. Two standard deviations from its average returning. I think [inaudible 00:09:13] Alpesh, that some kind of breakthrough. And at the moment it's just kissing its current standard deviation.

Now I think that what's actually happening at the moment in the economy, like I said, this is not a stock pick, it's just an educational tool. So you really learn something invaluable. What's happening is, when companies for two years have gone sideways, essentially gone sideways. It doesn't mean they're rubbish, it doesn't mean that they've run out of growth. They've actually bought time from which to then move upwards in accordance with their longer term trend and growth. As long as that growth and trend is in line. And it continues to be, there's nothing in their numbers, but suggests it suddenly fallen off a cliff. Yeah, there'll be people going, "Oh yeah, but what about crypto? What about crypto?" Listen, fundamentally the business, the infrastructure, the management, it's still on track with that blue line.

The structure, the management, it's still on track with that blue line. So the argument would therefore go, "Well, okay, if something goes sideways, it doesn't mean it's a rubbish company or it's fallen. It just means it might be basically at its lower standard deviation and still likely to continue in that upward trend." That's what it is, and I think that happening to a lot of companies at the moment. They're pulling back, as you can see this has, but in essence, they're continuing upwards, and that can be confusing for people, because then they say, "Wait a minute, how can something fall and still be going up?" Fall in the short-term. In the long-term, it's still intact to rise.

Now, as I said, this is not a stock pick by any means. I'm just giving you an educational background. Netflix, okay, again, not a stock pick, but I'm just giving something which a lot of people are asking about. A lot of people message me about, "Can you talk about Visa and Netflix? Explain to me what's happening with the economy." And here's another great example, and I want to do this for my GVI research followers because I think it should be beyond just, "Here are some stock names we've researched." I think the whole benefit of the newsletter and whether you're a lifelong member or just annual is that you should be able to get insights and education through it as well, because that is priceless, okay? I want to be unique compared to anybody else providing research out there on stocks, and the way I can be unique is give you the insights that a hedge fund manager has.

So let me give you an insight on Netflix, and this is exactly what I'd be saying if I was on the BBC, if I was on Bloomberg, CNBC. This is exactly... When we're doing my show on Bloomberg, we would literally prepare things like this and say, "Right, we've got to talk about this on tonight's show." I was in a lucky position that Bloomberg had television, so they tell me, "If you want to go on air to speak to the producers, you just go on." And on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, when I was working out of Bloomberg, that's how much they valued my contribution. When I was working out of Bloomberg, what would happen is they would say, "Right, you want to go on air? You got an idea." So let's say I was there now at the studio. Well, guess what? You guys are getting an exclusive. This is what I'd be preparing and then shooting it up on the screen for everybody to see.

Now, you can see one there. That's going back in the last seven years, and that's the trend line it's been on. Pretty hefty growth, okay? What do I mean by that? I mean the trend line's pretty steep. Look at one, that green dotted line. That's a pretty steep, strong trend line. Now, you can see in point two in Netflix, it's slightly shallower, and occasionally, you can see how I've drawn that, it's been a resistance, which then becomes a support, which is common with resistances, and we're currently at that level. Now, that doesn't mean it won't fall further. It might do, and this is not a stock recommendation. What I'm trying to explain to you is there's a lot of companies which have been doing really well for years, and then just because they've fallen off sharply, doesn't mean they've stopped growing or they won't ever go up. It probably means they're going to rise at a shallower rate of growth.

Now, you might say, "Well, wait a minute. What if you got in at the top there?" Well, it's going to take you a long time to make your money back. It might take you a year. You'll have to wait. That happens. Equally, though, it is a company which is going to continue going up, in all probability, just as an example. So that's what I wanted you to understand, and people often don't. They always think, "Oh, it's going to fall or it's going to rise." Well, it can do both. It can fall in the short-term, but continue to rise in the long-term, okay?

Something else I want to share with you, this comes from Goldman Sachs Asset Management, and essentially, what it's saying is, "Past S&P 500 corrections have typically been buying opportunities." I know it's difficult to stay calm when this happens, but what it's saying is the median S&P 500 returns since 1950 after buying S&P 500 10% off its high, okay? And unconditional means if you just bought at any time. So if you bought it after it dropped 10% from its high, you got a 15% return. If you just bought it regularly over 12 months, you got, on average, a 10% return.

So you might as well, "In that case, I'll just wait until there's a 10% drop-off." Well, they don't come every... If you're waiting, you might miss the continued rises. All it's saying is when that sell-off happens, you may want hold onto what you've got, or, if you've got extra cash, it might be a good time to actually buy. To put it in another way, it's the old saying, "Buy when others are fearful." Because when there's a 10% drop, that is actually when people are fearful, okay?

So that's that one. Another one I wanted to show, again, sort of putting things in context, and this is the S&P 500 calendar year returns versus intra-year declines. So what that means is the blue line is the calendar year return, okay? The dotted line is the average intra-year decline, which is that dotted line there. That's on average how much you can get a drop during the year. And the dot is the worst it fell during that year. So what was the intra-year decline? It was there. It was 34%, was the worst in 2020, but it still ended up at 18% up. Do you understand? So in a way, that tells you how scary it could get, yet you can see you were up for the year. So whenever markets are falling sharply and people tend to panic, I try to remind them that not every year is like 2008, where it dropped 49%, was down 37 for the year. Because if you look at the next year, it was down 28% at its worst, but ended up up 26%.

That's important for two reasons. One, is to give you a sense of perspective not to panic. Secondly, to tell you that when everybody is that fearful can be some of the best buying times, but also, it's probably better not to try and time the market and better to have, as we do with our research, say, "Right, this is what's going to be worth holding." Okay? So it's to give you several lessons on that.

Now just broaden this discussion out to market valuations and how the US market valuation changed over the last few years. Okay, the PE ratio is 16.3. That means, for every dollar, on average, you're paying $16 to buy a share in that company, okay? So every dollar of profit the company makes, you're paying $16 to own a piece of it, right? Now, is that high? Low? Well, actually, it's pretty much on its average. It's been higher, and it's been lower. Not much I can say there to you, okay?

What I can say is whilst, of course, it might be worrying how much the market cap of these companies has risen, what is interesting and what's more interesting to me is profit. They have increased. You might say, "Well, wait a minute. How can they've only increased 110% and yet the market cap has increased 252%?" That's because the price-earnings ratio has gone up. Wait a minute, you mean you can just increase that number? People are willing to pay more for a dollar of profits, and so the value of a company goes up? Surely if earning's gone up 110%, the market cap should only gone up 110%. That is an argument to be had. However, if that contracts to, let's say, 10 times, then even with the existing level of profits, the share price would fall, okay? Is that going to contract? Possibly. Could it go to 15 times multiple and profits stay as they are? Yes. And then would share prices fall? Yes.

So that's something to watch out for. In a way, this is both good and bad news. The good news is, there's profit. The good news is, PE ratio is what it's been similar to for a long time. The bad news is, you could get what's called a PE contraction. That can happen in a rising interest rate environment. You say, "Hang on, there is a rising interest rate environment, Alpesh." Well, there's arguments either way about this, and that's, again, why it's important not to just look at a market as a whole, but, as we do, research the individual stocks. We want to research companies, which, us being aware of all these factors, those are companies which should be resilient. Doesn't mean they won't fall, as I've shown you, everything falls when the market falls, but they should be the type that are resilient, which is what I always say in my GVI research, okay?

There's another good piece of news. There's more money buying equities. This is the monthly net purchase of US equities by individual investors, and it's been going through the roofs in 2020. There's a whole host of reasons for this. Furlough checks might be one of them. You might say, "Well, that's surely going to stop." Well, actually, it doesn't just stop in the sense that people don't suddenly sell everything they bought and then burn the money. A lot of it stays where it is, and that helps prop up prices. Of course, more buying causes prices to rise.

This is another important one I found from Morningstar. Buy the dip, people who try to buy the dip. In other words, the worst performing asset class of the prior year. How did they do? Well, not so great over the last decade. They would only have got about an 8% return. What about those who bought the rise? In other words, buy the best performing? Well, they did better, 74%, over that period. But the ones who had a balanced portfolio, basically companies which we try and do which are good quality, better companies, did a lot better.

Now, we'd expect to do even better than that, obviously. But the point is, we're not just looking to buy dips or momentum. That's too gamble-y. But we also are aware of research like this which shows that our approach is better than the simple buy the dip, buy the rise, okay? We're not just momentum players, and we're not [buy the dog 00:19:37] players, either. But I wanted to explain all of this to you so you've got a better understanding of how we're doing everything and what's behind our research and analysis so you know, because you're putting your trust in us, that it's actually very detailed what we go into.

Now, this one's important, okay? And the reason it's important, and let me just explain what it is, okay?

The reason it's important, and let me just explain what it is. Investors can choose from many asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, when building a portfolio. However, it's important to set investments that align with personal risk tolerance and desired return, of course. This chart's asset class risk and return over the last decade. Okay, so it's 10 year annualized. You've got bonds, equity, alternatives. What it's showing on the X axis is standard deviation, or risk, or volatility. On the Y axis is return. You can see the word there: return.

What you see over here is, of course you want the highest possible return for the lowest possible risk, or volatility, or probability of missing that return. You ideally want something up here. For anything that you got dividend, paying equities, guess what we have in our research. Dividend has to be a core element.

US large cap, US small cap, US midcap. Guess where we're fishing? This is exactly where we're fishing. Okay, fantastic. Our returns should be greater than all the other bits which aren't there. All right, so simple as that. Simple as that. That's the goal. Also, really important at the moment, I'm sort of trying to think what's on your mind, and feel free to write into us any particular questions you want answered about what's on your mind.

This is the real S&P 500 returns. Real means, doesn't mean others are fake. It means after a line for inflation, so once you deduct inflation. Real S&P 500 returns and GDP growth, so the growth of the economy. Gross domestic product, how much an economy produces in trades and in services. We're looking from 1980 to 2021. Real GDP growth. Now what's interesting for you to know is this: we're anticipating real GDP growth in the US markets, UK markets, global growth.

We're looking at being between two to four percent for the world as a whole. What are the likely returns? Let's just focus on the US, because this is about US returns. What are the likely returns? Well, between two and four percent, chances are we're going to get positive returns in the markets. There you go. Not guaranteed, but it could be that. Now, if the market gives you a tailwind of say, I don't know, 20%, then you can imagine your underlying stocks should do maybe 40%, because we've picked them on even tighter criteria.

That's exactly our thinking. If we get a tailwind, that's what happens. We've got a headwind, and let's say there's a massive recession, which is not what's happening, but let's say there was, okay. Then of course, you'd expect returns to be negative. If real GDP growth, even if it was slower than 2%, you'd expect returns to be negative because we've got too much of a headwind.

Put all of that into a different context. This is the performance of the S&P 500 yesterday. The time of this was minus 4.7. Okay. Well within its historical range of what's happening at the moment. You might think everyone always thinks whichever time and era they're in, they always think they're in some kind of special, unique time. They're not. Everybody's seen everything before. Now, these are the years we're at a zero to 10% returns. Think of this like a tailwind, 10 to 20%, 20 to 30, 30 to 40 and so on.

The chances are from what we're seeing in terms of GDP, nevermind what the index is going to do. We really care about what our stocks are going to do, but we should have a tailwind to help support us get returns is what I'm saying. Okay. You see a lot of years where we get some really good returns. Where might some of those returns come from? Well, just out of interest, I wanted to just show you this. I better move myself. I'll put myself where apple is.

Okay. What this is is a market map showing the price earnings growth ratio of each of those stocks there. What is price earnings growth? Price earnings growth is a measure of valuation. I'm not saying it's the only measure. I'm not saying it's the best measure. I'm just saying it's a measure of valuation. The idea is that if the share price is below one relative to earnings growth or profit growth, then the company's under valued. The share price does not reflect the profit growth of the company. Okay. If it's above one, it suggests it's overvalued. Doesn't mean overvalued companies can't do well.

What we've got in here is the more green it is and the brighter the green, the more undervalued it is. You can see banks, and funnily enough, in high inflation environments, banks are expected to do better. Okay. You can see over here, there's a few on the industrials. Not many. You can see some on steel over there. [Odor 00:00:24:45] manufacturers, you can see some of them expected to do well. Facebook, interestingly. Okay. Google interestingly as well. Again, insurance and so on.

That doesn't mean this is guaranteed to deliver a result. It's just a measure of undervaluation. Energy, as you know, and financial companies have already mentioned, are slated to do the best during high interest rate environments. The interesting thing is they're actually that doing the best is not priced in by the looks of it, because this looks like they're undervalued. That looks like they're undervalued. That's asset managers undervalued. As an asset manager in the hedge fund and private equity industry, and let me tell you, I'm undervalued.

Oh whoa. If I tell a joke, that's what I expect. Now, some people have asked me, tell us more about sort of hedge funds and what it is and all the rest of it. I'll do that in future calls as well, but what I wanted to do, I found this and I thought this was quite interesting and useful to you. Most of the people investing in the hedge funds are either pension funds, such as the investors in my hedge fund, or sovereign wealth funds, which we have as well, or foundations, or ultra high net worths, or family offices.

These are all people who want to preserve wealth. They don't want to be taking well gambles. That's why, when you'll see my research, it's of the type and the kind of stocks I'm saying, we're not looking at, hey, let's roll the dice and take a punt at something. I'm well aware that most people will be pension is all, saving for their pensions, or their children's inheritance. They're not looking for crazy high risk. Okay. Sorry. I fit in. I just wanted to let you know what my background is and how that ties in to GVI research as well.

Now this is useful. Everyone's talking about inflation. You're all talking about inflation. Well, what we've got down here on the X axis, real rates, standardized coefficients. Okay. That's how much they're linked to changes in the real interest rates. This is how they move in lockstep to it. This is breakeven inflation standardize coefficient. Basically what you need to know is this bit, which is that company's will outperform when inflation rises. These ones closer up here, so those who have higher inflation coefficient should do better. Those who have higher interest rate coefficient should do better if they're at this end.

What does that mean? Well, ideally, it means we want companies right at this top end, because they've got the best of both worlds, which are banks, financials, energy, or chosen components. Guess what had lower pegs? Now I'm mindful of all of this. When I give you the stock ideas that I do, this kind of stuff will be in there. The reason I'm also giving this education material on all this insight is because it's incredibly important for me that you're not just relying on me. No issues with that, but in between, you are well informed about the market.

Now you might say, "Well, wait a minute. Why do some of these do better? Why in a high inflation environment do banks do better?" Okay. Well, one of the reasons if inflation is high, the idea is that it's probably high because people are getting paid more. If they're getting paid more, it's easier for them to pay down debt. Remember, if you've got a hundred dollars in debt, and suddenly you've got a pay raise, it's easier to pay it off. There's less default. Simple as that. Okay.

Equally if interest rates are rising, it might be because growth is leading into inflation, and that's why interest rates have risen. If interest rates are rising, there must be good growth. If there's good growth, people are getting, they're getting lower default. Financials do better. They've got more money. Equally, if growth is on the rise, then energy companies would do better. Auto companies would do better. People buy cars, and so on and so forth. It's when those we would expect to do more. There's always a reasoning and theory behind it.

Let's move on to which asset classes, again, staying on that theme of inflation. I know many of you are thinking about this, and I don't want just for you to be waiting for my stock ideas. I want you along the time to have these insights so you can say, "You know what? It's great being part of GVI Research because what it means is we're also getting an insight into the market. We're getting education directly from the desk of our hedge fund manager. We're getting the exclusive insights from him."

Short term inflation. Now, this is really important. I'll tell you why. Return above inflation for each of these asset classes, I explain them in a second, and return below inflation. What's the worst they've done? What's the maximum, what's the worst, and what's the average? Global equities from 2012 to 2020, on average, returned 15% above inflation. Sometimes it was 24.5%, sometimes it was worse as 11.6%.

Global equities have had the highest median real return in recent years. Guess what we're looking at? Global equities. Okay. You could argue, "Well, wait, you're looking at US large cap." We're looking at US large cap. We're looking at global equities listed in the US, and we're looking at US medium cap and small as well. Okay.

And we'll looking at US medium cap and small as well. Okay, infrastructure, we don't need to worry about these other ones like gold. Everyone saying, oh, should I buy gold? Should I buy gold? Well, look at that. That's the problem I've got with gold. First of all, the average is 6%. Okay. And the worst case is -28. Thanks very much with the 23%, which is what everybody's obsessing about. But in actual fact, on the whole doesn't do well. Well, you might say, well, that's in other years. What about now? And then you'd be trying to time the market. I'm not too happy about that. Energy equities, well, the downside's pretty big, -38%, but the upside is phenomenal. Guess what? The average isn't that great. But Alpesh, you just mentioned a whole bunch of energy companies. Yeah, exactly. We'll do the research.

Mindful of the fact that there are times in high inflation when it's worth having them, we'll still do the research and say which ones though? We don't just say energy inflation. Great. Go in. And the reason for that is because you can have as low as -38. Our job is to make sure that we protect that downside as well. Okay. Look guys, in closing, I want to go through, give you a portfolio update. Quite a few stocks we have in our portfolio building up now. A10 Networks, for instance. Now a lot of these companies have fallen back because of the recent market decline. Remember I'm looking to hold them for 12 months anyway. Whilst it's fallen back, I was looking at some of the news on it and I've got news on my other screen and earnings and revenues had topped, this is in February, had top testaments.

Great. Let me just get rid of the mouse cursor. That means I'm not worried about the fact that the rest of the market's declining in this regard, because guess what? It's had some great returns. Let's look at Skyline, right? It's up above the buy price that I'd suggested and what's the new stream lights? I've got on my screen the news. Again, nothing which makes me think that it's a problem. It's investing its capital with efficiency. That's good. And there's nothing that I've been blindsided by. The figures still don't cause me any cause for concern and they still look attractive. That's fine. And that's the update I wanted to give on that. The next one, Molina Healthcare. And it's come off a little bit because, again, markets have declined. I certainly continue to expect earnings and profitability to grow on that one.

And I think it's a prudent part of my portfolio. I'm not, as I said, particularly concerned by short term noise. Williams-Sonoma, that has declined a bit since the buy price. But, but, but, is there a problem? Is there something fundamental to the company or was it more to do with the market? If it's to do with the market, we're not worried. If there's something fundamental with the company, then I'd be worried. And when I've gone through the numbers, numbers are still good. Gone through the news, there's nothing on the news, which makes me think, oh my word. It is more a case of people taking profits from that, from when they've got into it earlier maybe. Axcelis Technologies were up a little bit, but around the price at which we bought into it. And again, similar kind of analysis. Is there anything of worry?

Well actually, it's Q1 earnings and revenues announced in February surpassed estimates. Okay. That's good news for me. And from what I can see from the numbers, good. From what I can see from what's happening with the company as a whole, not an issue. Victory Capital Holdings, roughly around the same level, might be down a tiny bit compared to the original price. Again, do the similar analysis. Do the numbers still look okay? What about the news items? And again, when I look at the news items that I've got in front of me, there just isn't something which makes me think, well, that's an issue. That's a company specific thing. And that suggests that it's to do more with the broader market, and so one's less worried. Okay. Lowe's, it's up a bit since we got into it. Now, what does this say? Okay. Well again, any problems with this? I know a lot of hedge funds like it. Have any of them seen something that we might have missed? No.

Not a problem. Numbers still good? Yes. Okay. McKesson, that's just literally come out as picture. There's not really much to say about it because what I've written about it, obviously it's been so recent, would still apply. Just wanting to bear all of those things in mind in terms of what I've said. Remember it's such a volatile market, even if Facebook drops 25% in a day, in a day. Okay. A lot of people ask me, well, wait a minute, should I then maybe have my stop loss further away? And I think, yeah, there's nothing wrong with people choosing for their own risk reward to say, well, okay, I'll push this for a stop loss, but actually I'm going to put it here a bit further or tighter, whatever you wish, but further away because the market's more volatile because actually it's a solid company.

It's a good, attractive company. Why wouldn't I put it? The stop loss are further away because there's more noise out there, more volatility in a world where Facebook drops 25% in a day. That's fine. I want you to have your own confidence levels to say, well, actually I'm going to do things according to my own risk reward analysis, not just blindly follow, but for those who just want to be told what to do, then we make that very clear as well. Anyway, I hope you found this very helpful indeed. I have to thank my team because they help collate everything. They get all the information to me and must thank all the other people who provide me, [inaudible 00:36:10] from Morningstar, the Goldman Sachs and everyone else, because it does take an enormous amount of time to collate it and put it all together. And so I must thank them as well. And thank you all for listening and thank you to all the followers of GVI and my research reports. Thank you. And I hope to see you very soon as well.

Thank you.