Update - March 22, 2022
This Stock Is Surging in a Down Market
Editor’s Note: I don’t think I’ve ever seen Andy so excited about something. Our team has been preparing for next Monday’s big event for months. We’ve lined up an icon. We have an incredible $5 investment. And now we’re set to unveil something huge. It all kicks off in less than a week. Click here to reserve your spot for the reveal.
In June of 2020, I introduced you to a very special company.
It’s been called “the most powerful company you’ve never heard of.”
And just as I promised it would, it has buoyed our portfolio in one of the most confused and volatile times in our nation’s economic history.
So far this year, its shares are up by 12%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is down 6%.
The reason we’re now up 40% on CME Group (CME), despite a faltering market, is quite simple. It’s just like I put it in the issue…
And as the nation embarks on what looks to be a long battle for financial survival using a “whatever it takes” mentality, owning a stake in CME Group will be like owning a gunpowder maker in WWII.
Those seem like harsh words – they felt even more brash when I first wrote them in the heat of the pandemic – but they’ve proven quite accurate.
When I wrote the issue, Washington had only just started its pandemic spending. Only one round of checks had reached the mailboxes of millions of Americans. Now nearly $5 trillion has been dished out, inflation is soaring and states are stimulating once again… in an effort to fight the inflation caused by rabid money printing.
You’ve surely felt the pain of rising prices.
Corn, soybean and wheat prices are surging to multiyear highs… and beyond. Oil is up. Natural gas is up. Metal prices are doing insane things.
Like I said back in June of 2020, CME gets a cut of every trade that’s made.
This surge in commodity prices is no surprise. We saw the spending, we saw the money printing, and I put it all together and called for the start of a huge new bull market in basic materials.
The catalysts may change, but the underlying forces are constant.
We can’t have a pool of gasoline and not expect something to set it ablaze. It may be a lightning strike, a spark from a welder or a teenager hiding a cigarette from his mom… but the gas will burn.
That’s why we must pay such close attention to interest rates and the story they’re telling us.
Most folks believe rates are surging. They’re certainly elevated. But as always, when we strip away the contortions caused by inflation, we see that real rates remain deeply negative.
The real rate on the 10-year Treasury is still -0.58%.
It’ll surprise most folks… but that’s exactly the same level it was at one year ago.
That means, despite the rhetoric, money is still extremely cheap and monetary policy is still quite loose. That tells us our strategy remains on track.
Our portfolio reinforces the idea.
CME Group will remain a quiet workhorse throughout the year. The more expensive things get and the more panicked traders become… the higher its price will go.
It’s an ideal inflation hedge.
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